US Treasuries = TRASH!

The wisest and most successful bond investor of all time, Bill Gross, has dumped his bond fund’s $150 billion investment in U.S. bonds. One should not ignore the importance of this event. The largest bond fund in America no longer believes that Treasury bonds are a good investment. Moreover, Gross is not alone. Blackrock, the world’s largest money manager, is now underweighting Treasuries overall and reducing the duration of the bonds it still holds. That means they are dumping their long-term bonds, which are the most sensitive to interest-rate changes, in favor of Treasury instruments that mature in a year or less. Other bond funds, such as the $20 billion Loomis Sayles funds, are also forgoing Treasuries in favor of high-yield corporate bonds. Virtually everywhere you look, from great investors such as Warren Buffett to insurance companies such as Allstate, everyone is dumping their long-term U.S. debt and either buying debt that matures in less than a year or moving their money elsewhere.

So who is still buying U.S. debt ? According to Bill Gross, the “old reliables” — China, Japan, and OPEC — are still in the market for 30 percent of all new debt. The rest, however, is being purchased by the Federal Reserve. There is no one in else in the market. For the first time ever, Americans are refusing to purchase their own country’s debt.

Gross estimates that the “old reliables” are still good for $500 billion a year in purchases, and will be for some time in the future. This is pretty much the amount they’ve had to buy in the past to rebalance capital flows distorted by the U.S. trade deficit. Gross, however, may be wrong this time. Japan, needing to finance its reconstruction, is much likelier to be a net seller of U.S. debt, while China’s economy is slowing and actually ran a trade deficit in the last quarter. That leaves only one buyer of consequence — the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, there are already signs that inflation, while still subdued in the United States, is looking to break out. It has begun wrecking havoc through many areas of the globe, for example providing the catalyst for much of the upheaval in the Middle East. And when it strikes here, the Fed will be out of options. It will have to turn off the money pumps, raise interest rates, and batten down the financial hatches. The resulting recession will be long and nasty.

It is time to face facts. Spending is so out of control that Treasuries are no longer a safe haven for investors. The markets are saturated with U.S. debt and increasingly unwilling to absorb more. There is only one way out of this mess — cut spending, fast and deep.

Time is running out fast! Hyperinflation seems unavoidable as fiat paper money is being printed as fast as the US presses can run. To protect your wealth and your family, buy gold and silver now from these top companies, APMEX Gold and Silver and Silver American Eagles.

Rick

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Should You Hoard Nickels?

As precious metals like silver, gold, and platinum continue to increase in price as the US Fiat Money Paper Dollar is overprinted into financial oblivion, base metals are attracting some side glances as well. In particular copper pre-1982 pennies and nickel coins (75% copper & 25% nickel). Indeed, due to the rise in the commodity price of both copper and nickel, coinflation.com lists the metallic value of the current US nickel at close to $0.07 cents! If it wasn't for a pesky law passed in December of 2006 forbidding the exportation and / or melting of US nickels, enterprising speculators might be lighting up the cauldrons already for profit!

However, given the assumption that most US citizens who've chosen to start hoarding nickels are lawful people, what could possibly be their motive for stacking the 5-cent pieces in their garages, sheds, basements etc? Well, it can't be for ease of storage and portability (always great in survival situations). For example: $20,000 worth of gold coins could be easily carried by your 85 year old grandmother in her purse. $20,000 worth of American Silver Eagles weighs 40 pounds, and can be carried by an average man some distance. However, $20,000 worth of nickels (face value) weigh 4,410 pounds, and isn't going anywhere without a forklift and a light truck or heavy duty pickup! As far as ease of storage gold and silver win hands down as well. My wife hardly even notices my hiding spots for my gold and silver coins. On the other hand, how is any married man (who presumably wishes to stay that way) going to schmooze his significant other into letting him store a mere 400,000 nickels or $20,000 worth around the house! I suppose you could form the nickel bricks into coffee tables and other furniture, but I just can't see my wife sitting down quietly while a truck is backing up to the house to unload the massive cargo.

I don't want people to get me wrong. I am very sympathetic to any person whose goal is to diversify out of the US(less) Dollar into more valuable commodities. I imagine the typical nickel hoarder may have missed the gold and /or silver trains, and is hoping to catch the more modest nickel and copper rockets before takeoff. However, I just see the logistics mentioned above to be major stumbling blocks to realizing an eventual profit from hoarding nickels, to say nothing of the thorn in the nickel-guys paw that is the US Law also detailed above.

Finally, I'd like to offer my advice. Forgo the nickels with the numerous logistical and legal roadblocks, and buy American Silver Eagles and Junk Silver (pre-1965 dimes, quarters, halves) on every dip in silver prices. Silver is headed to $50 and beyond. You may have missed the first quarter of the game, but there is still another three to go with a nice half-time show in the middle (NO CHRISTINA AGUILERA I PROMISE - I LOVE AMERICA TOO MUCH)!

Time is running out fast! Hyperinflation seems unavoidable as fiat paper money is being printed as fast as the US presses can run. To protect your wealth and your family, buy gold and silver now from these top companies (below):

Rick

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A Return to the Gold / Silver Standard?

The State of Utah has passed legislation that would allow gold and silver coins to be used as a legal tender in the State. This fiscal move is widely viewed as a hedge against the value erosion that the US Dollar is currently undergoing.

The new wave is not restricted to Utah, as a dozen states have proposed such a bill.

In Virginia, the legislature there has passed a bill (which is yet to be signed by the governor) that would allow the state to mint gold, silver and platinum coins. This is expected to protect the state from the scourge of high inflation.

In fact, a Virginia delegate tried to initiate a resolution that would allow the state to have its own currency, but the effort fell through. Recently, there were unconfirmed reports that China is on a move to opt for a gold standard.

The US had been on gold standard for a major part of the 20th century, but Richard Nixon decoupled gold from currency in 1971.

In November last year, World Bank President, Robert Zoellick called for considering by nations a return to gold standard to better accommodate currency fluctuations.

The Utah bill is yet to be signed by the State Governor. Once this is through, there are arguments that the legislation may spur the US Congress to consider adopting gold standard.

Time is running out fast! Hyperinflation seems unavoidable as fiat paper money is being printed as fast as the US presses can run. To protect your wealth and your family, buy gold and silver now from these top companies, APMEX Gold and Silver and Silver American Eagles.

Rick

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What is the Gold / Silver Ratio?

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

The chart (above) shows the gold / silver ratio for the last few years. The ratio simply put describes how many ounces of silver will buy one ounce of gold. Historically, the ratio was pegged at 16 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. Indeed, this value relationship of the two precious metals actually mirrors their relative abundance in the Earth's crust.

In more recent times the ratio has swung heavily in favor of gold as silver was demonetized, averaging around 55. Currently the ratio is about 40x and thus above the median of 55x. This means that silver is attractively valued relative to gold. A low was hit in 1920, when 15 ounces of silver would buy 1 ounce of gold. 1940 saw a row of historical highs, when one ounce of gold bought 100 ounces of silver. We experienced similar values in 1990.

Looking back over the centuries, we find that gold has been substantially more expensive since the beginning of the 20th century than in the previous three centuries. The long-term median (since 1687) is 15.7x. This also reflected the actual ratio of physical supplies: gold is about 16 times more scarce than silver. According to USGS, the measured and assumed silver resources are about 6 times as high as the ones of gold. Therefore silver is at the moment clearly undervalued at a ratio of 40x relative to gold.

Note: 3/25/11 - GOLD/SILVER RATIO touched more new lows this week. Closed today at 38.486. Shhhh -- Listen. Come close and I'll tell y'all something you won't hear anywhere else, but don't tell anybody. At 38.486 the ratio stands below its 10 year, below its 20 year, below its 30 year, below its 50 year, below its 60 year, and below its 110 year average. In fact, it's nearer the 220 year average than the 110 year. Put that into perspective: the 10 year average is 60.53, 22 points higher.

[Using a gold:silver ratio of 16:1 equates to a price of $90 per ounce for silver based on the current ballpark price of $1430 per ounce for gold and suggests a price of $650 if gold were to reach a parabolic top of $10,400!]

Time is running out fast! Hyperinflation seems unavoidable as fiat paper money is being printed as fast as the US presses can run. To protect your wealth and your family, buy gold and silver now from these top companies (below):

Rick

CLICK ADS BELOW FOR FREE DISCOUNT!

What's Greshams Law?

Gresham's Law was named for Sir Thomas Gresham, an English financier that lived 500 years ago in Tudor England. He observed that "bad money always drives out the good" whenever the government forces both coins to be accepted on a equal basis in commerce. "Good" money was defined as coins with commodity value equal to or higher than their governmental decreed value, and "bad" coins were slugs that were made from debased metals whose inherent commodity value was lower than the face amount. In essence, on a level field of commerce, Gresham noted that people tended to pay with the bad money and hoarded the good, while vendors gave change in the bad and likewise held onto the good.

In the USA the best example of Gresham's Law occurred in 1965 when the government eliminated the 90% silver content from dimes and quarters, and reduced the Kennedy half dollar to a 40% silver & 60% copper alloy. Immediately, the older precious metal coins all but disappeared from circulation as they were mason-jarred in favor of spending the new base metal coins and debased 1965 Kennedy 40% silver halves. In response to the popular hoarding of the old 90% silver coins LBJ famously pronounced, "if anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content".

We know today that Johnson was not only a lousy President, but also a similarly dismal prophet, as the value of 90% and 40% "junk silver" coins continues to soar! In fact, in 1971, only a few years after LBJ stepped down in disgrace, the US removed the last silver content from the circulating Kennedy half. Once again despite Johnson's earlier prediction, the 40% silver halves rapidly vanished from commercial transactions as the new base metal 50-cent pieces were thrown at cash registers in their place.

Yet another example of Gresham's Law in action occurred in December 2006 as the commodity prices of both copper and nickel rose substantially. Suddenly, the commodity value of 1909-1982 copper pennies and nickels were worth more in metal content than their face value as coins. In response, Congress passed a law making the exportation and melting down of pennies and nickels illegal. As in the case of the earlier 90% silver coins, many pennies and nickels are currently being hoarded by speculators hoping to take advantage of the valuable copper and nickel content in the old one-cent and the current five-cent pieces if/when the anti-melting law is repealed.

The conclusion to be drawn from Gresham's Law is obvious. Good money will always be desired as a reserve of wealth, especially while the US and other governments continue along the path of gradual debasement of coinage and proliferation of inherently worthless "fiat" paper money! Buy and hold silver and gold US coins, and sit back while the tsunami of paper money & slug coins wash all others away!

Time is running out fast! Hyperinflation seems unavoidable as fiat paper money is being printed as fast as the US presses can run. To protect your wealth and your family, buy gold and silver now from these top companies, APMEX Gold and Silver and Silver American Eagles.

Rick

CLICK ADS BELOW FOR FREE DISCOUNT!