Friday, August 3, 2012

America 2050. What Will We Build? Part 1.

I am an historian, not a psychic. America in 2050 is just a nice round date. I believe that our destiny lies reliably in the past. If you want to know where we're going, we have to look at where we (and Western Europe) have been.

Normalcy Bias

Many people reading my articles and watching my Youtube videos at rickpyle1 sometimes email me or leave comments expressing their exasperation with their friends and family. They want to know how they can't see the economic disasters looming and the dramatic changes in American lives that will most certainly be a reality in 2050. The answer is the normalcy bias held by many of our fellow citizens.

The normalcy bias is an irrational and illogical belief which states that since in the lifetime of the individual nothing catastrophic or devastating has ever occured, then nothing profoundly negative will ever occur in the remainder of their life.

The prosperity enjoyed by post WWII America has been a time of prosperity unparalleled in the history of humanity. We have had recessions, foreign wars, and some political turmoil. However, millions have not been executed without trial in purges, our money has not become abruptly worthless, wars have not devastated our homeland, millions have not been held in concentration camps or died of hunger lying in street. Many other countries including Germany, Japan, Russia, and China cannot make such claims.

America 2050 will have no "get out of jail free card" from the horrors described above. Like all investor prospectus point out, "the past performance of a stock is no guarantee of future results".


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